Between Impact, Wishful Thinking and Truth

I. Why We Should Talk About Impact at All

Anyone responsible for media budgets today faces a dilemma: Never has so much been measurable, never has uncertainty been greater. Between ROAS dashboards, attention scores, AI-generated creatives, and multi-touch attribution, one question arises with increasing urgency:

What actually works?

And: Who determines that? The platform? The media team? Gut feeling?

Media analyst Eric Seufert publishes his "Media Money Flows" annually: A highly distinctive, data-driven analysis of global advertising spending in the digital space. Seufert formerly worked at Rovio (Angry Birds), today he advises investors, brands, and platforms. His perspective is analytical, economic, not promotional. And that's precisely what makes it interesting.

The central thesis of his current 2025/26 edition: We are experiencing a phase of profound reconstitution of the advertising world.

Not only are budgets shifting – but also the terms with which we talk about advertising. Success, performance, impact: all of this is being renegotiated. It's a "constitution," as Seufert writes – a restructuring of the relationship between brands, platforms, and consumers.

This constitution has many faces:

• The superiority of platforms in access to data and infrastructure
• The loss of importance of classical audience logic
• The merging of Paid, Owned and Earned through creators – as a new media power
• The shift of control towards automated black-box systems
• And above all: A profound change in meaning of what marketing should – and can – achieve.

This raises questions. And makes "Media Money Flows" a helpful occasion to discuss a larger topic: How do we measure impact? What do we believe? What do we question too rarely?

II. When Impact Is a Model, Not Proof

A large part of marketing decisions today are based on metrics. But many of them are modeling, not facts:

• ROAS is based on attribution logic that isn't always causal
• Lift tests are statistically valid – but complex and open to interpretation
• Engagement can be a signal, but doesn't have to be

And then there's the platform perspective:

Meta communicates $4.52 ROAS per dollar invested, based on Advantage+ Shopping campaigns. Google promotes incremental value through PMAX.

That sounds solid. It is. But: These figures come from platform-owned studies, with platform-defined KPIs and within platform environments. They measure impact according to the rules of those who profit from it.

Is that wrong? Not necessarily. But it's not neutral. And it demands a minimum of skepticism. Or better: autonomy.

III. The New Mainstream: Redefining Impact

At the latest since the move away from cookies (which is coming slower than expected, but still happening), it's clear: platforms must justify themselves anew.

When clicks decline, CTRs stagnate, and conversions are hard to attribute, there's only one solution: change the rules of the game.

And that's exactly what's happening:

• Attention becomes the new currency (although no one knows what 1 second of "attention" actually achieves)
• Incrementality replaces direct attribution (important, but hard to measure)
• Creative Performance replaces targeting (necessary, but rarely systematically implemented)

These recalibrations are not inherently wrong. On the contrary: they show how complex impact has become in a fragmented world.

But: Don't forget that these new models don't come from the market, but from the platforms themselves. It's an argumentative self-defense against departing budgets.

IV. Creative Is the New Targeting? Only If It's More Than a Sentence

One of the central statements in Seufert's report: Creative Engineering is becoming the new core competency. Creative diversity increasingly replaces algorithmic targeting – but doesn't completely replace it. Rather, a kind of symbiosis emerges: Diverse creatives enable more targeted delivery – and simultaneously make it necessary.

This aligns with observations from Meta:

• 56% of campaign success is attributed to creative
• Repeated creatives lead to sharply declining conversion
• Creative diversity (20+ variations) reduces cost per conversion by up to 29%

But: What platforms mean by this is often operationalization. Not strategy. Not message. Not cultural context.

Those who believe creative optimization means "more assets per week" miss the essence. You need:

• Strategic narratives
• Empathetic messaging
• Testing frameworks with clear hypotheses

Otherwise, creative is diverse – but not effective.

V. AI, Automation – and the New Convenience

The rise of AI in marketing is unstoppable. And in many cases a real efficiency gain: for copywriting, image generation, voice synthesis, asset variety.

But here too: Who owns the framework?

• Meta provides AI tools directly
• TikTok offers automated ad creation via Creative Center
• Google integrates generative AI into Performance Max

Brands gain more power. But also less control. Because platforms decide which content gets played – not just based on audiences, but on content types.

And the more of this is automated, the less room remains for strategic messaging.

That's convenient. But not always smart.

VI. Thinking of Impact as an Ecosystem

The biggest insight from Media Money Flows might be: There is no singular truth anymore about what works.

• Platforms deliver their own metrics
• Brands bring their own goals
• Users react increasingly context-dependent

This means: Impact doesn't happen on a platform, but in the interplay.

Advertising works when:

• It's culturally relevant
• It appears at the right time and in the right tone
• It contributes to a strategic, thoughtful ecosystem approach

And that's not a question of platform choice. It's a matter of attitude.

VII. What Brands Can Take Away

• Not every number is proof. Measurement is modeling.
• Not every AI is progress. Automation doesn't replace strategic ideas.
• Not every platform is objective. Metrics have senders too.
• Not every impact is immediately visible. Brand building is a long game.

This means for CMOs, brand decision-makers, and media teams:

• Fewer scorecards, more context.
• Less KPI worshipping, more systems thinking.
• Less platform faith, more critical marketing craft.

VIII. Our View as Creative Engineers

At DAVIES MEYER, we don't just guide brands through the media ecosystem. We help build their own systems:

• With Creative Engineering that understands diversity as strategy
• With Digital Farming that doesn't chase reach but cultivates relevance
• With Favorade.ai that combines AI-powered personalization with ownership

But above all: with the attitude that impact doesn't just happen. It must be understood, designed, and nurtured.

IX. Conclusion

Impact is not a value in itself. It's an interplay: of technology, creation, context, attitude.

Media Money Flows don't show how advertising works. They show how it's negotiated. Between platform, brand, and user.

The good news: Those who don't accept superficial answers, who ask questions, who test, who reflect, who develop their own metrics – they end up not just with better advertising. But with a more resilient brand.

And perhaps that's the impact that matters most.